🔌 Charged topics about electric vehicles
Affordability, battery decay, investment opportunities, and more
Today’s topics:
🔌 Diving deeper into Electric vehicles
EV affordability. Has it improved?
What’s holding back shoppers?
🎙️ Interview with Scott Case, the founder of Recurrent
The truth behind EV batteries
Do EVs depreciate more than combustion vehicles?
And much more…
Reading time: about 3 min 12 sec
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🔌 Diving deeper into EVs
As I was getting ready for my podcast interview with Scott Case, EVs have been on my mind, and I’ve been paying special attention to everything EV-related.
EVs are more affordable now
Recent data from Cox and CarGurus confirms that EV prices have come down significantly, making EVs much more affordable than before, even if the tax credit is not applicable. The Recurrent Price Index, which tracks EVs, fell 25% year-over-year in April and the company reports that more than 35% of used EV listings in April were priced under $30,000, according to the company.
This is encouraging news for EVs because the $30K price tag gets consumers closer to an affordable monthly payment of $400-$500.
JD Power has its own EV Index, which tracks the EV ecosystem across 6 categories: interest, availability, adoption, affordability, infrastructure, and experience. Currently, the index is at 49 across these categories. When it reaches 100, the parity with traditional internal combustion engine vehicles would have been reached.
Source: JD Power
Note that the affordability part of the index is now as high as 87! That’s why EV market share keeps growing and setting new record in Q1: 7.2% of new-vehicle sales, and a total market share of 8.5%.
There is certainly a greater number of affordable used EVs on the market, and another interesting development is that brands known for their value-focused offerings are now leading the industry. It was unthinkable, just a few years ago, to cross-shop a Hyundai or Kia against German luxury brands. Tesla’s leadership position is also being seriously challenged.
What’s holding back shoppers?
At the same time, a recent survey from JD Power reports that 21% of shoppers are “very unlikely” to consider an EV in the next 12 months. Why is that?
One explanation could be related to fears of battery degradation. Research from Starline Motor Finance Car reports that consumers are grossly overestimating the battery degradation in EVs and are not considering EVs as a result.
The article states that 56% of consumers believed batteries lose 30% or more of range after five years. A real-world drop-off is more likely to be less than 15%. Confirming that, Tesla just released an update on the battery degradation in older models S and X, and it claims that its batteries only lose about 12% of capacity after 200,000 miles.
Source: Tesla
Digging more into the topic, I found that the degradation varies wildly based on the battery pack size and cooling method. It also greatly depends on whether an owner was nice to the battery: using slower chargers, not charging over 80%, and not allowing the battery to discharge below 20%. Moreover, batteries need special maintenance which includes draining and replacing the coolant fluid and checking the condition of the vents and seals to prevent water intrusion.
Temperature greatly affects not only battery capacity but the charging time as well. Here’s a graph that shows that at 23o F, the battery charges to only 50%, while at 68o F to 80% during the same timeframe.
Source: Paper from University of Strathclyde, U.K.
High or low ambient temperatures cause a noticeable decrease in the distance a vehicle can travel before recharging due to using an air conditioner or heater. This usage increases the demand for energy stored in the vehicle battery, causing the reduction of driving range, particularly under low temperatures.
Source: Paper from University of Strathclyde, U.K.
Personality goes a long way (Jules from Pulp Fiction)
As much as I love the instant torque of electric powertrains, I miss the uniqueness of each internal combustion engine. High-revving VTECs, whistling turbos, growling V8s, smooth V6s… OEMs are focused on improving the range, efficiency in cold climates, reducing the weight, using sustainable materials, and so on. But which ones are truly thinking about addressing the emotional aspect of driving? A compact EV can easily out-accelerate most sports cars, but there’s more to driving that drag races off the light. Character and driver engagement comes from the artistry of making all components of a vehicle working together harmoniously while providing tactile feedback to the driver. Hopefully, OEMs will be able to differentiate driver experience through hardware and software to create appealing cars for every kind of consumer.
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🎙️ Interview with Scott Case, the founder of Recurrent
Listen to the podcast (45 min) or Read the full transcript
EV Battery reports? Recurrent’s story
What happens when your EV’s warranty expires
The truth behind EV battery ranges
Scott’s take on EV % of market share by 2030
How changing Tesla prices are impacting dealerships
The Recurrent Flywheel
When does an EV lose most of its value?
Investment opportunities in the EV space
Operational changes for dealerships
The bear case for EV adoption
Wrapping up
Previous episodes
Carvana’s secret sauce, what’s next for auto lenders, pros/cons of credit unions | Chris Coleman, Co-Founder of WithClutch
Future of car-buying, will small dealers go extinct, investment opportunities in EV space | Steve Greenfield, Founder of Automotive Ventures
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